Tue, Dec 2, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 013 | 19 | 131 |
| NYI | 09 | 18 | 17 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:55NYIBo HorvatAssists: Maxim Shabanov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 5:30NYIAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Calum Ritchie, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 16:26TBLDominic JamesAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:30TBLNick Paul: Holding2 min
- P1 12:53NYIKyle MacLean: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:49NYICalum Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:39TBLDarren Raddysh: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:03TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:54NYITony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ritchie won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel11:10
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg8:55
xG 0.66–0.24 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Paul6:50
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Douglas – Goncalves – James3:21
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg10:55
xG 0.84–0.35 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser15:18
xG 1.06–0.77 (58%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Santini – Carlile9:30
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Tsyplakov7:22
xG 0.45–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Duclair – Holmstrom – Ritchie9:31
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Horvat – Heineman – Shabanov9:21
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Lee – Drouin – Barzal10:32
xG 0.03–1.18 (2%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Schaefer2:43
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:06
xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Mitchell9:58
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).