Tue, Dec 2, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
32%
8%
52%
NYI winsTBL wins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 26:35 | 0.24 | 67.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 25:28 | 0.20 | 64.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 24:16 | 0.18 | 69.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 22:48 | 0.13 | 55.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 6 | 22:17 | 1.19 | 67.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:39 | 0.26 | 68.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:31 | 0.37 | 53.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:54 | 0.10 | 71.3% | +7.6 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 15:02 | 0.42 | 64.2% | +7.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:48 | 0.06 | 68.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 14:40 | 0.20 | 67.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 13:10 | 0.27 | 76.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:36 | 0.30 | 73.4% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 11:32 | 0.04 | 23.3% | +7.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0.00 | 60.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 10:23 | 0.17 | 67.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 7:31 | 0.05 | 36.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4:27 | 0.00 | 25.2% | 0.0 |
| L | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 2.04 | 0.0 | 56:40 |
New York Islanders
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 23:50 | 0.25 | 37.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 22:22 | 0.31 | 44.3% | +20.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:21 | 0.00 | 26.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0.00 | 36.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:57 | 0.71 | 41.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0.55 | 44.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19:23 | 0.16 | 42.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17:01 | 0.72 | 16.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 16:40 | 0.10 | 38.9% | +12.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0.00 | 6.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0.13 | 13.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:38 | 0.09 | 44.2% | +12.8 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:06 | 0.14 | 34.8% | +20.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0.00 | 31.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 11:36 | 0.14 | 46.6% | +12.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0.00 | 83.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 9:27 | 0.09 | 50.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 9:01 | 0.16 | 92.8% | 0.0 |
| W | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 4.19 | +3.2 | 60:00 |