Thu, Dec 4, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 019 | 27 | 112 | 338 |
| NYI | 216 | 316 | 110 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Ryan Pulock, Marc Gatcomb · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:20NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:58NYIBo HorvatAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 7:59NYIAdam PelechGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 8:39COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Sam Malinski, Brock Nelson · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 10:04COLMartin NecasAssists: Victor Olofsson, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 18:46NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 1:27COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 18:45NYICasey CizikasENUnassisted · Snap, 0.47 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:56COLZakhar Bardakov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 12:35COLMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P2 1:16COLArtturi Lehkonen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:47NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:12COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:11NYIMatthew Schaefer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:42NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00COLJosh Manson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:36
xG 1.40–0.78 (64%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Landeskog – Lehkonen – MacKinnon2:04
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton4:14
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:34
xG 1.61–0.62 (72%)attempts 25–15goals 1–1
- Girard – Malinski14:29
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Burns – Manson14:22
xG 0.69–1.15 (37%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb8:01
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Lee – Barzal – Tsyplakov11:49
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Duclair – Holmstrom – Ritchie7:09
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Horvat – Heineman – Shabanov10:40
xG 0.62–1.79 (26%)attempts 12–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo12:04
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Mayfield – Pelech2:16
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:14
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).