Mon, Dec 15, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 213 | 13 | 524 |
| TBL | 013 | 15 | 110 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 3:48FLAAnton LundellAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 11:48FLABrad MarchandGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 18:08FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Mackie Samoskevich · Snap, 0.14 xG4–0
- P2 19:27TBLMax CrozierAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 2:11TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 6:37FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Uvis Balinskis · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:41FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P1 8:40TBLDarren Raddysh: Interference2 min
- P2 4:46TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:46FLABrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:46TBLMax Crozier: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P2 12:38FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:35TBLCurtis Douglas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:11FLAJesper Boqvist: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:52TBLJake Guentzel: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:52FLANiko Mikkola: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:18FLAEvan Rodrigues: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:28TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P3 15:28FLAUvis Balinskis: Embellishment2 min
- P3 19:05TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich12:39
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett8:28
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 3–10goals 2–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell8:28
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–14goals 0–0
- Gregor – Boqvist – Studnicka3:52
xG 0.01–0.31 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling9:16
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Jones – Ekblad3:08
xG 0.07–0.04 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Balinskis10:54
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point2:28
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sabourin – Paul – Douglas8:23
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Point7:06
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel5:34
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser12:21
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 24–3goals 1–0
- Crozier – Carlile2:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Crozier12:24
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).