Wed, Dec 17, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Utah Mammoth 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 08 | 28 | 212 | 428 |
| DET | 011 | 012 | 15 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:44UTAClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 14:17UTAJack McBainGWGAssists: Michael Carcone, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 9:55DETEmmitt FinniePPAssists: John Leonard · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 15:52UTADylan GuentherUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 16:23UTAKevin StenlundAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:06UTABarrett Hayton: Holding2 min
- P2 6:35DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:19UTAClayton Keller: Interference2 min
- P2 11:55UTABarrett Hayton: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:45DETElmer Soderblom: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:15DETMoritz Seider: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:54DETJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:12UTALawson Crouse: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Hayton – Guenther9:01
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Peterka7:23
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Yamamoto7:14
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Carcone – McBain – But8:48
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Durzi11:15
xG 0.62–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Marino12:09
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone7:52
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen7:02
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Leonard9:13
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Soderblom – Kasper – Danielson7:21
xG 0.15–0.29 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie10:16
xG 0.18–0.89 (17%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson10:19
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka13:55
xG 0.19–0.52 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson14:51
xG 0.28–0.96 (22%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).