Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 310 | 06 | 16 | 422 |
| TBL | 06 | 314 | 39 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42CAREric RobinsonAssists: Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:00CARJackson BlakePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 12:27CARBradly NadeauPPAssists: Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 0:30TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Dominic James, Max Crozier · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 1:20TBLBrayden PointAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 16:36TBLJack FinleyAssists: Dominic James, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 2:47CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Mark Jankowski, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 3:13TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 6:38TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: J.J. Moser, Nick Paul · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 19:33TBLJake GuentzelENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:27TBLDeclan Carlile: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P1 10:35TBLJack Finley: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 14:36TBLZemgus Girgensons: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:07TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:07CARMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:07CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:07TBLDeclan Carlile: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:07CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:07TBLDarren Raddysh: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:32CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Finley won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Ehlers – Nadeau4:07
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Kotkaniemi – Nadeau4:15
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carrier – Robinson – Stankoven2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov2:31
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Miller3:43
xG 0.13–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Walker – Nikishin10:33
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Reilly – Walker3:53
xG 0.01–0.34 (4%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Gourde – Point7:03
xG 0.95–0.16 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Holmberg7:18
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Cirelli4:06
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Paul8:29
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – D'Astous11:47
xG 1.24–0.17 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Raddysh – Moser13:42
xG 1.32–0.29 (82%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Crozier – Carlile11:57
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).