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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:53Shot by Raddysh, saved by Kochetkov
  3. P1 2:42Goal by Robinson (Staal)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Raddysh, Carlile · CAR Staal, Carrier, Walker, Robinson, Nikishin

  4. P1 3:25Shot by Robinson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  5. P1 3:27Carlile: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile · CAR Staal, Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Robinson, Nadeau

  6. P1 4:00Goal by Blake (Ehlers, Gostisbehere)4v5+12 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cirelli, Moser · CAR Gostisbehere, Ehlers, Aho, Svechnikov, Blake

  7. P1 5:16Shot by Guentzel, saved by Kochetkov
  8. P1 5:18Shot by Paul, saved by Kochetkov
  9. P1 5:39Shot by Girgensons, saved by Kochetkov
  10. P1 6:00Svechnikov: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser · CAR Gostisbehere, Aho, Miller, Svechnikov, Blake

  11. P1 8:39Shot by Ehlers, saved by Vasilevskiy
  12. P1 8:59Shot by Chatfield, saved by Vasilevskiy
  13. P1 10:35Finley: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: TBL Crozier, Finley, Goncalves, Carlile, James · CAR Reilly, Jankowski, Walker, Svechnikov, Blake

  14. P1 11:41Shot by Stankoven, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  15. P1 11:48Shot by Hall, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  16. P1 12:27Goal by Nadeau (Stankoven)4v5+9 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Girgensons, Raddysh, Cirelli · CAR Hall, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Stankoven, Nadeau

  17. P1 14:36Girgensons: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Girgensons, Cirelli, Crozier, Finley, Carlile · CAR Hall, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Stankoven, Nadeau

  18. P1 15:33Shot by Guentzel, saved by Kochetkov4v5
  19. P1 18:07Shot by Kucherov, saved by Kochetkov
  20. P1 18:43Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  21. P1 19:08Shot by Hall, saved by Vasilevskiy
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:13Shot by Walker, saved by Vasilevskiy
  25. P2 0:30Goal by Goncalves (James, Crozier)+9 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Crozier, Finley, Goncalves, Carlile, James · CAR Staal, Reilly, Carrier, Walker, Robinson

  26. P2 1:20Goal by Point (D'Astous, Kucherov)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Gourde, Point, D'Astous · CAR Hall, Ehlers, Chatfield, Miller, Stankoven

  27. P2 2:07Paul: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Nadeau

  28. P2 2:07Jankowski: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Nadeau

  29. P2 2:07Kotkaniemi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Nadeau

  30. P2 2:07Carlile: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Nadeau

  31. P2 2:07Kotkaniemi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Nadeau

  32. P2 2:42Shot by Raddysh, saved by Kochetkov5v4
  33. P2 2:53Shot by Aho, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  34. P2 3:13Shot by Walker, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  35. P2 4:05Shot by Guentzel, saved by Kochetkov5v4
  36. P2 5:28Shot by Holmberg, saved by Kochetkov
  37. P2 5:29Shot by Cirelli, saved by Kochetkov
  38. P2 6:40Shot by Point, saved by Kochetkov
  39. P2 6:41Shot by Gourde, saved by Kochetkov
  40. P2 7:03Shot by Robinson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  41. P2 11:10Shot by Moser, saved by Kochetkov
  42. P2 11:22Shot by Moser, saved by Kochetkov
  43. P2 11:33Shot by Kucherov, saved by Kochetkov
  44. P2 12:09Shot by Raddysh, saved by Kochetkov
  45. P2 14:12Shot by Nadeau, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 16:34Shot by Finley, saved by Kochetkov
  47. P2 16:36Goal by Finley (James, Gourde)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Raddysh, Finley, Moser, James · CAR Gostisbehere, Aho, Walker, Svechnikov, Blake

  48. P2 17:25Shot by Gostisbehere, saved by Vasilevskiy
  49. P2 18:07Raddysh: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Raddysh, Moser · CAR Staal, Carrier, Ehlers, Miller, Stankoven

  50. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 1:27Shot by Walker, saved by Vasilevskiy
  53. P3 1:28Shot by Nadeau, saved by Vasilevskiy
  54. P3 2:47Goal by Svechnikov (Jankowski, Kotkaniemi)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Crozier, Moser · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Miller, Kotkaniemi, Svechnikov

  55. P3 3:13Goal by McDonagh (Holmberg, D'Astous)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Girgensons, Cirelli, D'Astous, Holmberg · CAR Hall, Aho, Chatfield, Miller, Blake

  56. P3 6:36Shot by Moser, saved by Kochetkov
  57. P3 6:38Goal by Guentzel (Moser, Paul)+35 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Raddysh, Moser · CAR Staal, Reilly, Gostisbehere, Ehlers, Nadeau

  58. P3 10:45Shot by Moser, saved by Kochetkov
  59. P3 11:00Shot by Holmberg, saved by Kochetkov
  60. P3 11:37Shot by Point, saved by Kochetkov
  61. P3 12:08Shot by Carlile, saved by Kochetkov
  62. P3 12:33Shot by Nadeau, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P3 14:15Shot by Stankoven, saved by Vasilevskiy
  64. P3 14:32Svechnikov: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Raddysh, Moser · CAR Jankowski, Gostisbehere, Miller, Kotkaniemi, Svechnikov

  65. P3 16:53Shot by Gourde, saved by Kochetkov
  66. P3 19:01Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  67. P3 19:33Goal by Guentzel (McDonagh)5v6+3 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Cirelli, Moser · CAR Gostisbehere, Ehlers, Aho, Svechnikov, Blake, Nadeau

  68. P3 0:00Period end
  69. P3 0:00Final