Tue, Dec 23, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 213 | 14 | 00 | 322 |
| DET | 16 | 05 | 212 | 12 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23DETJames van RiemsdykAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Simon Edvinsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 10:47DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 19:16DALJamie BennAssists: Matt Duchene, Justin Hryckowian · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 3:02DETEmmitt FinniePPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 11:18DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 15:57DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:34DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:22DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min
- P2 9:07DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:41DALCasey DeSmith: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:00DALJustin Hryckowian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:13DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Holding2 min
- P3 10:59DETJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:30DETLucas Raymond: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:09DALMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque11:09
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Benn – Duchene – Hryckowian8:39
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston10:45
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Faksa – Erne – Bäck8:08
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley12:50
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–1goals 1–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:46
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie10:18
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Appleton – Kasper – Danielson6:16
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Leonard10:06
xG 0.33–0.46 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Compher – Appleton – Rasmussen2:22
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson16:24
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker2:25
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka9:54
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).