Sat, Dec 27, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 19 | 313 | 531 |
| TOR | 24 | 320 | 29 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Matias Maccelli · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:42TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: Max Domi, Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 17:50OTTNick CousinsAssists: Jordan Spence, Stephen Halliday · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 0:18OTTRidly GreigAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.89 xG2–2
- P2 3:28TORBobby McMannAssists: Auston Matthews, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 7:28TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 8:32TORNick RobertsonAssists: Matthew Knies, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 0:14OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Dylan Cozens, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 5:07OTTTim StützleAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 5:53TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–6
- P3 9:18OTTJordan SpenceAssists: Claude Giroux, Stephen Halliday · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–6
- P3 18:44TORJohn TavaresENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:12OTTFabian Zetterlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:50TORPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 13:07OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:47OTTDrake Batherson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:47TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:46OTTJake Sanderson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Cozens3:57
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens8:19
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Bourgault – Halliday4:25
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle7:34
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence16:26
xG 1.40–0.63 (69%)attempts 24–14goals 2–1
- Jensen – Matinpalo11:36
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub14:23
xG 1.19–1.25 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – McMann11:14
xG 1.64–0.17 (91%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies4:03
xG 0.14–0.26 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Roy – Robertson – Knies6:36
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Laughton – Joshua – Lorentz10:56
xG 0.01–0.43 (3%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Stecher12:35
xG 1.22–0.74 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 2–3
- Rielly – Stecher3:51
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe15:54
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).