Sat, Dec 27, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 212 | 18 | 15 | 425 |
| FLA | 15 | 18 | 013 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:05TBLJake GuentzelSHAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Max Crozier · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:52TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: Yanni Gourde, Declan Carlile · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:31TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Gage Goncalves · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 7:05FLABrad MarchandPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:04TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (45)
- P1 3:25FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:25TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:25FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:25TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:25TBLZemgus Girgensons: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:48FLAA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:49TBLSteven Santini: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:15FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 3:48FLAMackie Samoskevich: Interference2 min
- P2 6:59TBLCurtis Douglas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:59TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:59FLALuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:14FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 18:30FLASeth Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLMax Crozier: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30TBLJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:34TBLScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:34TBLScott Sabourin: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:34TBLScott Sabourin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:34TBLMax Crozier: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:30FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:53TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:14FLASam Bennett: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:39FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39FLAUvis Balinskis: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39FLABrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TBLMax Crozier: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:27TBLScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:27FLALuke Kunin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:27TBLCurtis Douglas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:27TBLScott Sabourin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:27TBLJ.J. Moser: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg7:00
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves4:28
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Cirelli3:14
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sabourin – Paul – Douglas3:06
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Carlile2:55
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- D'Astous – Crozier9:40
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser8:09
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Boqvist – Studnicka3:02
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell5:58
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich2:32
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Marchand – Bennett – Samoskevich2:01
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling8:13
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Balinskis8:13
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Jones – Mikkola7:13
xG 0.18–0.50 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).