Sun, Dec 28, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 19 | 19 | 01 | 227 |
| DET | 08 | 113 | 112 | 13 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 19:01DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:53TORNick RobertsonAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 5:16DETMason AppletonAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Albert Johansson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 1:46DETSimon EdvinssonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:29DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31DETJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:14TORBobby McMann: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:14DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14TORBobby McMann: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Roy – Robertson9:45
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies11:23
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann14:28
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Laughton – Lorentz – Cowan7:26
xG 0.24–0.85 (22%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe17:49
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Rielly – Myers12:04
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher16:35
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat13:27
xG 1.07–0.21 (83%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie15:43
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Leonard – Kasper – Danielson6:15
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Compher – Appleton – Rasmussen12:44
xG 0.14–0.74 (16%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson20:06
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka13:00
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson10:10
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).