Wed, Dec 31, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 4, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 211 | 26 | 431 |
| DAL | 114 | 08 | 07 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 7:44BUFJosh DoanAssists: Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:05BUFBowen ByramGWGAssists: Noah Ostlund, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 9:21BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Josh Doan, Bowen Byram · Snap, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 11:35BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Noah Ostlund, Owen Power · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:38DALRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:41DALJustin Hryckowian: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:44BUFJosh Doan: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:59BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan11:42
xG 1.30–0.72 (64%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne9:08
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson10:45
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Tuch – Norris – Ostlund9:22
xG 0.14–0.69 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram4:36
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power8:47
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kesselring – Power8:14
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque10:40
xG 1.36–0.08 (95%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Benn – Steel – Hryckowian2:39
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson2:18
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Rantanen – Johnston4:49
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen9:19
xG 1.03–0.10 (91%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Lundkvist – Harley9:58
xG 0.85–0.84 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Lindell – Lyubushkin3:40
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).