Thu, Jan 1, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 216 | 07 | 16 | 329 |
| OTT | 06 | 215 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13WSHTom WilsonAssists: Justin Sourdif · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 18:59WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Ryan Leonard, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 7:42OTTNick JensenAssists: Jake Sanderson, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 19:31OTTRidly GreigAssists: Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 2:47OTTDavid PerronAssists: Stephen Halliday, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 15:53WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Justin Sourdif, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:38OTTFabian ZetterlundGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:16OTTArtem Zub: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:16OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:16WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:25OTTDrake Batherson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:25WSHJustin Sourdif: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:53OTTNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:13OTTNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:21WSHConnor McMichael: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:23OTTDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:41WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:39WSHMatt Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:21WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Sourdif6:32
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank5:35
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – McMichael2:09
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Strome – Beauvillier – Leonard2:05
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Roy – Sandin3:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Chychrun10:53
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Carlson – Sandin10:50
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Pinto – Greig4:09
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Cozens4:45
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle4:13
xG 0.20–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens3:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot13:26
xG 1.02–0.37 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 3–1
- Sanderson – Zub10:41
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven9:07
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).