Thu, Jan 1, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 17 | 39 | 524 |
| LAK | 211 | 01 | 18 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 4:43LAKJeff MalottAssists: Corey Perry · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 6:14LAKAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Corey Perry, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 18:07TBLBrayden PointAssists: Darren Raddysh, J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 1:37LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Corey Perry, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 16:41TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:19TBLGage GoncalvesGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:15TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Darren Raddysh · Backhand, 0.83 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:52LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:43TBLMax Crozier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12TBLDeclan Carlile: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:58TBLDarren Raddysh: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:33LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00LAKCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves11:37
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel10:31
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – James7:48
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point2:07
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser16:50
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Cernak – Moser3:46
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Crozier – Moser2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Malott – Helenius4:31
xG 0.07–0.01 (90%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Fiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko12:17
xG 0.49–0.59 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Armia – Foegele – Byfield10:23
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere11:41
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ceci13:05
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:16
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Clarke13:35
xG 0.31–0.82 (28%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).