Sat, Jan 3, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 05 | 113 | 223 |
| OTT | 19 | 29 | 19 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:08WPGAdam LowrySHAssists: Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:03OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:56OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Nick Jensen, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 15:50OTTDrake BathersonPPGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 10:10WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:28OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Jake Sanderson, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:20OTTNick Cousins: Holding2 min
- P1 6:33WPGLogan Stanley: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:54WPGJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:09WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:24OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 12:07WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:07OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:27OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo5:36
xG 0.75–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Vilardi3:45
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Barron – Perfetti4:08
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Iafallo – Perfetti3:34
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:55
xG 1.07–0.40 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Samberg – Pionk10:34
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Miller – Stanley7:15
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Cousins – Halliday3:28
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Cozens9:02
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Greig – Stützle6:34
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:17
xG 0.30–0.69 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven9:46
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot12:44
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 10–24goals 1–1
- Sanderson – Zub12:55
xG 0.30–0.96 (24%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).