Mon, Jan 5, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 4, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 218 | 117 | 445 |
| WSH | 211 | 313 | 25 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33ANAChris KreiderAssists: Olen Zellweger · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:56WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Connor McMichael, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 18:58WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:54WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Justin Sourdif, Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 7:30WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Ryan Leonard, Connor McMichael · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 8:52WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 12:56ANAAlex KillornAssists: Ross Johnston · Snap, 0.16 xG2–5
- P2 14:12ANAJacob TroubaAssists: Troy Terry · Slap, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 9:22ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 18:46WSHJohn CarlsonENAssists: Nic Dowd, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–6
- P3 19:18WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Justin Sourdif · Snap, 0.35 xG4–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:40WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:38ANAJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:38WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:29ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00WSHMartin Fehérváry: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:17ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:21WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:21ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:51WSHJohn Carlson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:16ANAOlen Zellweger: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:45WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnston – Poehling9:23
xG 0.76–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke12:18
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson11:19
xG 0.30–0.56 (34%)attempts 15–10goals 2–2
- Granlund – Strome – Nesterenko10:00
xG 0.62–0.89 (41%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Mintyukov16:37
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 24–11goals 0–1
- Gudas – LaCombe7:14
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger9:59
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Duhaime – Frank9:09
xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- McMichael – Sourdif – Leonard11:04
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 7–15goals 4–2
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier8:51
xG 0.38–0.79 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry13:21
xG 0.86–0.22 (79%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- McIlrath – Sandin3:20
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin6:55
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).