Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 213 | 013 | 233 |
| TBL | 112 | 110 | 26 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:48TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:22COLParker KellyAssists: Zakhar Bardakov, Ilya Solovyov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 9:31COLBrock NelsonAssists: Cale Makar · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:22TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 8:31TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Max Crozier, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:35TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:58TBLDarren Raddysh: Holding2 min
- P1 18:14COLBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28COLZakhar Bardakov: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:19TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLMartin Necas: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Bardakov – Makar4:44
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:06
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury7:33
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Brindley10:46
xG 0.08–0.63 (12%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSolovyov – Malinski10:02
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Manson – Malinski2:12
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Malinski2:35
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel7:12
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel2:03
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:16
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves5:39
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – D'Astous14:15
xG 0.79–0.33 (70%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- D'Astous – Crozier3:20
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Moser17:51
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).