Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
44%
8%
9%
39%
TBL winsCOL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against COL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Lehkonen–MacKinnon–Necas | Nelson–Nichushkin–Brindley | Olofsson–Colton–Drury | Kelly–Bardakov–Makar | Nelson–Nichushkin–Olofsson | Girard–Makar | Solovyov–Malinski | Burns–Manson | Manson–Girard | Makar–Malinski | Burns–Malinski | Burns–Makar | Manson–Malinski | Manson–Makar | Burns–Solovyov | Girard–Solovyov | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | 9:210.20–0.19 | 0:550.02–0.00 | 6:480.01–0.14 | 2:340.04–0.00 | 1:010.08–0.00 | 0:440.09–0.05 | ||||||||||
| Bjorkstrand–Paul–James | 0:310.00–0.25 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 2:340.31–0.03 | 2:420.01–0.41 | 3:330.05–0.43 | 2:300.20–0.00 | 1:100.07–0.00 | 1:000.01–0.00 | 0:370.01–0.00 | |||||||
| Guentzel–Cirelli–Hagel | 1:050.05–0.00 | 3:130.21–0.00 | 1:240.12–0.08 | 0:340.03–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.00 | 1:220.03–0.08 | 1:520.07–0.00 | 0:310.12–0.00 | 0:480.12–0.00 | |||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Goncalves | 1:560.21–0.06 | 1:400.02–0.23 | 1:500.28–0.05 | 0:460.00–0.08 | 0:420.00–0.05 | 0:380.02–0.15 | 0:460.08–0.02 | |||||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Hagel | 0:360.10–0.00 | 0:580.10–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.03 | |||||||||||||
| Cirelli–Hagel–Goncalves | 1:070.09–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 1:070.09–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | 0:580.00–0.07 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.10 | |||||||||||||
| Guentzel–Point–Goncalves | 0:450.01–0.02 | 0:480.01–0.02 | ||||||||||||||
| Raddysh–Moser | 10:160.20–0.44 | 2:360.17–0.04 | 1:340.11–0.03 | 6:400.01–0.15 | 2:440.04–0.03 | 2:150.20–0.03 | 1:160.08–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:060.09–0.30 | 0:590.06–0.18 | ||||||
| Cernak–D'Astous | 1:110.05–0.07 | 4:170.19–0.05 | 3:180.36–0.05 | 0:500.03–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.00 | 3:040.06–0.00 | 4:420.32–0.03 | 1:040.12–0.07 | 0:590.03–0.02 | 1:190.19–0.02 | 0:540.00–0.16 | ||||
| Crozier–Carlile | 1:010.00–0.00 | 3:200.07–0.16 | 1:580.01–0.41 | 1:060.00–0.00 | 2:500.00–0.49 | 1:000.01–0.00 | 1:540.07–0.08 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 1:000.01–0.00 | |||||||
| D'Astous–Crozier | 2:160.27–0.00 | 1:400.19–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Raddysh–D'Astous | 0:330.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Cernak–Moser | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLCOLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Cale MakarCOL | 27 | 26:04 | 0:58 | 2:32 | 6 | 5 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 25 | 24:39 | 0:59 | 3:13 | 4 | 2 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 30 | 24:06 | 0:48 | 1:37 | 3 | 4 |
 Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 23 | 22:37 | 0:59 | 1:41 | 4 | 3 |
 Brock NelsonCOL | 26 | 22:14 | 0:51 | 1:39 | 6 | 7 |
 Martin NecasCOL | 23 | 21:54 | 0:57 | 1:42 | 5 | 2 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 28 | 21:10 | 0:45 | 1:34 | 1 | 2 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 27 | 20:18 | 0:45 | 1:33 | 2 | 3 |
 Valeri NichushkinCOL | 22 | 19:30 | 0:53 | 2:19 | 4 | 5 |
 Josh MansonCOL | 21 | 19:02 | 0:54 | 2:03 | 1 | 6 |
 Artturi LehkonenCOL | 24 | 18:55 | 0:47 | 1:41 | 3 | 5 |
 Sam MalinskiCOL | 23 | 18:51 | 0:49 | 1:58 | 0 | 2 |
 Samuel GirardCOL | 21 | 18:42 | 0:53 | 2:15 | 3 | 3 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 20 | 18:38 | 0:56 | 2:03 | 4 | 2 |
 Brent BurnsCOL | 22 | 18:19 | 0:50 | 1:48 | 1 | 7 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 20 | 17:39 | 0:53 | 1:37 | 2 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 17 | 16:50 | 0:59 | 2:02 | 5 | 1 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 17 | 16:20 | 0:58 | 2:16 | 5 | 1 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 20 | 16:15 | 0:49 | 1:10 | 2 | 4 |
 Jack DruryCOL | 21 | 15:54 | 0:45 | 1:32 | 1 | 1 |
 Max CrozierTBL | 17 | 15:33 | 0:55 | 1:35 | 0 | 3 |
 Gavin BrindleyCOL | 17 | 14:49 | 0:52 | 1:36 | 1 | 3 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 19 | 14:40 | 0:46 | 1:29 | 2 | 3 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 17 | 14:27 | 0:51 | 1:36 | 2 | 2 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 19 | 14:05 | 0:44 | 1:12 | 2 | 3 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 15 | 13:43 | 0:55 | 2:48 | 2 | 2 |
 Ilya SolovyovCOL | 13 | 12:53 | 0:59 | 1:31 | 1 | 0 |
 Ross ColtonCOL | 18 | 12:34 | 0:42 | 1:01 | 1 | 1 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 16 | 12:12 | 0:46 | 1:35 | 0 | 5 |
 Dominic JamesTBL | 13 | 12:08 | 0:56 | 1:48 | 0 | 2 |
 Victor OlofssonCOL | 18 | 11:54 | 0:40 | 1:14 | 1 | 1 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 15 | 11:47 | 0:47 | 1:33 | 4 | 1 |
 Declan CarlileTBL | 14 | 11:30 | 0:49 | 1:30 | 0 | 2 |
 Parker KellyCOL | 15 | 11:20 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 0 | 1 |
 Zakhar BardakovCOL | 11 | 7:23 | 0:40 | 1:12 | 1 | 1 |
 Taylor MakarCOL | 8 | 5:29 | 0:41 | 1:04 | 1 | 0 |