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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Away

Colorado Avalanche

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.

TBL winsCOL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:37Shot by Crozier, saved by Wedgewood
  3. P1 3:25Shot by Holmberg, saved by Wedgewood
  4. P1 3:58Raddysh: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser · COL Manson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Girard, Necas

  5. P1 4:10Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  6. P1 5:39Shot by Necas, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  7. P1 5:45Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  8. P1 6:02Shot by Makar, saved by Vasilevskiy
  9. P1 6:07Shot by Drury, saved by Vasilevskiy
  10. P1 7:17Shot by Raddysh, saved by Wedgewood
  11. P1 8:00Shot by Cernak, saved by Wedgewood
  12. P1 8:31Shot by Burns, saved by Vasilevskiy
  13. P1 8:37Shot by Goncalves, saved by Wedgewood
  14. P1 10:56Shot by D'Astous, saved by Wedgewood
  15. P1 11:31Shot by Raddysh, saved by Wedgewood
  16. P1 11:37Shot by Raddysh, saved by Wedgewood
  17. P1 12:06Shot by Point, saved by Wedgewood
  18. P1 12:49Shot by Colton, saved by Vasilevskiy
  19. P1 18:14Burns: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, Cernak, D'Astous, Goncalves · COL Burns, Manson, Olofsson, Kelly, Drury

  20. P1 19:09Shot by Raddysh, saved by Wedgewood5v4
  21. P1 19:22Shot by Guentzel, saved by Wedgewood5v4
  22. P1 19:48Goal by Guentzel (Kucherov, Raddysh)5v4+19 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh · COL Nelson, Manson, Lehkonen, Malinski

  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 1:29Shot by Colton, saved by Vasilevskiy
  26. P2 2:58Shot by Makar, saved by Vasilevskiy
  27. P2 3:16Shot by Kelly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P2 3:22Goal by Kelly (Bardakov, Solovyov)+21 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James · COL Kelly, Solovyov, Bardakov, Makar, Malinski

  29. P2 4:19Shot by Girard, saved by Vasilevskiy
  30. P2 4:51Shot by Cirelli, saved by Wedgewood
  31. P2 5:42Shot by Malinski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  32. P2 5:46Shot by Malinski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  33. P2 6:02Shot by Malinski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  34. P2 6:40Shot by Goncalves, saved by Wedgewood
  35. P2 7:03Shot by Moser, saved by Wedgewood
  36. P2 7:28Bardakov: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Raddysh, D'Astous, James · COL Girard, Kelly, Solovyov, Bardakov, Makar

  37. P2 9:31Goal by Nelson (Makar)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, D'Astous · COL Nelson, Manson, Makar, Drury, Bardakov

  38. P2 11:01Shot by Crozier, saved by Wedgewood
  39. P2 11:56Shot by Paul, saved by Wedgewood
  40. P2 12:27Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Wedgewood
  41. P2 12:35Shot by Colton, saved by Vasilevskiy
  42. P2 12:58Shot by James, saved by Wedgewood
  43. P2 13:07Shot by Bardakov, saved by Vasilevskiy
  44. P2 14:24Shot by Lehkonen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 16:45Shot by Necas, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 17:22Goal by Girgensons (Gourde, Holmberg)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser · COL Manson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Makar

  47. P2 17:58Shot by Guentzel, saved by Wedgewood
  48. P2 18:19Shot by D'Astous, saved by Wedgewood
  49. P2 0:00Period end
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 0:27Shot by Moser, saved by Wedgewood
  52. P3 1:19D'Astous: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous · COL MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Drury, Brindley, Malinski

  53. P3 2:31Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  54. P3 5:58Shot by Paul, saved by Wedgewood
  55. P3 8:31Goal by Hagel (Crozier, Kucherov)+36 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, Hagel, D'Astous, Crozier · COL Nelson, Nichushkin, Girard, Makar, Brindley

  56. P3 8:49Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Wedgewood
  57. P3 14:14Shot by Hagel, saved by Wedgewood
  58. P3 15:22Shot by Necas, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 16:40Shot by Burns, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 16:42Shot by Olofsson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  61. P3 16:45Shot by Burns, saved by Vasilevskiy
  62. P3 16:53Shot by Burns, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P3 17:50Shot by Lehkonen, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  64. P3 17:51Shot by Nelson, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  65. P3 18:23Shot by Nelson, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  66. P3 18:35Goal by Cirelli (Hagel, Raddysh)5v6+5 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · COL Nelson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Necas, Makar

  67. P3 18:56Shot by Colton, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  68. P3 19:17Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  69. P3 19:28Shot by Nelson, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  70. P3 19:49Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  71. P3 0:00Paul: Roughing (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, D'Astous, Crozier, James · COL Nelson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Necas, Makar

  72. P3 0:00Necas: Roughing (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, D'Astous, Crozier, James · COL Nelson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Necas, Makar

  73. P3 0:00D'Astous: Roughing (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, D'Astous, Crozier, James · COL Nelson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Necas, Makar

  74. P3 0:00D'Astous: Misconduct (10 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, D'Astous, Crozier, James · COL Nelson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Necas, Makar

  75. P3 0:00Period end4v6
  76. P3 0:00Final4v6