Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 05 | 210 | 324 |
| CAR | 39 | 210 | 114 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19CARK'Andre MillerAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:53DALJason RobertsonPPUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–1
- P1 13:32CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 18:56CARLogan StankovenAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 5:17CARK'Andre MillerGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 6:59CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 0:36DALMikko RantanenAssists: Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 8:18CARWilliam CarrierAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 18:11DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson · Bat, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:21CARWilliam Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04DALAdam Erne: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:57DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:33DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39DALJason Robertson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:23CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:47DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:41CARWilliam Carrier: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestErne – Steel – Hryckowian5:35
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson2:51
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston2:12
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Duchene – Bourque – Hryckowian2:08
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lundkvist2:09
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen9:54
xG 0.67–0.52 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Lundkvist – Lyubushkin6:18
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake11:19
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Aho – Svechnikov9:01
xG 0.77–0.52 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis7:06
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Carrier – Robinson – Philp5:45
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller15:15
xG 1.21–0.72 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 3–1
- Nikishin – Nystrom11:47
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield14:48
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).