Sat, Jan 10, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 06 | 110 | 225 |
| PIT | 05 | 111 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33CGYConnor ZaryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:17PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ben Kindel · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 0:42CGYMatt CoronatoGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:39CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:54PITKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:27CGYWilliam Stromgren: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:23CGYYan Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:03PITJustin Brazeau: Embellishment2 min
- P3 13:03CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 15:35PITBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato8:58
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee8:57
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Stromgren4:05
xG 0.08–0.27 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Frost – Zary – Klapka6:38
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov12:12
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl13:23
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Hanley – Pachal9:38
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Mantha – Brazeau6:06
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:19
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Novak10:15
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Malkin – Chinakhov – Kindel7:08
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Kulak14:42
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon12:41
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Shea – St. Ivany8:52
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).