Sat, Jan 10, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
64%
9%
8%
19%
PIT winsCGY wins
Calgary Flames
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:04 | 0.03 | 31.8% | +21.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 23:21 | 0.08 | 53.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:16 | 0.08 | 28.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21:13 | 0.17 | 24.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20:32 | 0.14 | 28.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20:20 | 0.16 | 48.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:37 | 0.06 | 67.4% | +21.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:31 | 0.19 | 55.9% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:15 | 0.20 | 64.2% | +21.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0.04 | 64.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 0.21 | 53.6% | +14.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0.03 | 32.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0.00 | 39.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0.07 | 48.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0.00 | 39.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8:00 | 0.01 | 32.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8:00 | 0.00 | 23.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7:27 | 0.08 | 26.4% | 0.0 |
| W | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 2.78 | +1.8 | 59:48 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25:03 | 0.00 | 61.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 24:51 | 0.07 | 67.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 22:57 | 0.32 | 40.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 22:03 | 0.11 | 44.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19:22 | 0.12 | 65.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0.07 | 34.7% | +15.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 18:57 | 0.04 | 64.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:13 | 0.13 | 35.6% | +15.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0.07 | 78.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0.00 | 28.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:14 | 0.30 | 73.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0.02 | 66.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:58 | 0.15 | 73.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:20 | 0.05 | 32.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 5 | 11:52 | 0.38 | 74.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 11:05 | 0.76 | 78.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 10:09 | 0.11 | 56.0% | +15.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 7:45 | 0.08 | 75.3% | 0.0 |
| L | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 1.57 | −0.4 | 57:53 |