Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 18 | 48 | 723 |
| PHI | 18 | 08 | 14 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 4:15PHIGarnet HathawayAssists: Noah Juulsen, Rodrigo Abols · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 6:05TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:37TBLNick PaulGWGAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 2:03TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 3:37TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 4:45PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 9:00TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.14 xG6–2
- P3 11:00TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.12 xG7–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:00PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:00TBLDeclan Carlile: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:13TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
- P1 18:55PHICam York: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:13TBLGage Goncalves: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:53PHIGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves10:00
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 4–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:46
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel11:51
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – James9:18
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – D'Astous14:29
xG 0.64–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 3–1
- Raddysh – Moser17:33
xG 1.06–0.73 (59%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- D'Astous – Crozier3:09
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZegras – Grebenkin – Michkov5:59
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Cates – Grebenkin3:51
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Grundstrom – Cates4:57
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols8:19
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Juulsen – Andrae17:51
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Sanheim – York14:03
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Seeler – Ristolainen15:02
xG 0.30–0.82 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).