Mon, Jan 12, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 09 | 212 | 432 |
| BUF | 17 | 110 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:19BUFJacob BrysonAssists: Ryan McLeod, Zach Metsa · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:11FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:57BUFZach BensonAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 11:07FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:46FLAA.J. GreerENGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–2
- P3 19:46BUFAlex TuchAssists: Bowen Byram, Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:16BUFJosh Doan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:33FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:55FLAJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:35FLADonovan Sebrango: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:35BUFJosh Dunne: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell14:30
xG 1.17–0.87 (57%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
- Rodrigues – Samoskevich – Vilmanis10:05
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Kunin – Boqvist – Studnicka4:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer14:10
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling18:45
xG 1.57–0.62 (72%)attempts 26–18goals 1–1
- Petry – Sebrango7:40
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Mikkola – Sebrango2:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan7:22
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- McLeod – Krebs – Quinn5:24
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson5:39
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne6:09
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Metsa8:04
xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Byram – Power19:08
xG 0.97–1.20 (45%)attempts 18–23goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin20:40
xG 0.67–0.98 (40%)attempts 17–29goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).