Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 314 | 16 | 526 |
| PHI | 05 | 110 | 06 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 0:33TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 4:29TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 5:40PHIChristian DvorakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 19:29TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 16:39TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Darren Raddysh, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–1
Penalties (21)
- P2 4:06PHIRodrigo Abols: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:29TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:29PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:39TBLErik Cernak: Holding2 min
- P2 13:01TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
- P2 16:18TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:18PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:59PHINikita Grebenkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:59TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:46PHIRodrigo Abols: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:46TBLNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:46PHIRodrigo Abols: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:46TBLMax Crozier: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:46PHINikita Grebenkin: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:46PHINikita Grebenkin: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:46TBLMax Crozier: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 8:40PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:36TBLJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:36PHITravis Konecny: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:36PHITravis Konecny: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves4:51
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel5:34
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:42
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – James7:36
xG 0.07–0.49 (12%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser11:34
xG 0.53–0.46 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Crozier – Carlile7:58
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – Carlile4:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Barkey6:08
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grebenkin4:56
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras7:47
xG 0.49–0.81 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Cates – Michkov4:44
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Sanheim4:24
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – York3:53
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Andrae12:45
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).