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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia

Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

PHI winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:10Goal by Holmberg (Girgensons, Gourde)+15 pts WP

    On ice: PHI Sanheim, Grundstrom, Cates, York, Michkov · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser

  3. P1 4:10Shot by Raddysh, saved by Vladar
  4. P1 5:01Shot by Abols, saved by Johansson
  5. P1 14:18Shot by Point, saved by Vladar
  6. P1 14:19Shot by Point, saved by Vladar
  7. P1 14:20Shot by Point, saved by Vladar
  8. P1 15:50Shot by Tippett, saved by Johansson
  9. P1 16:37Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Johansson
  10. P1 17:15Shot by Juulsen, saved by Johansson
  11. P1 17:22Shot by Zegras, saved by Johansson
  12. P1 18:03Shot by Goncalves, saved by Vladar
  13. P1 0:00Period end
  14. P2 0:00Period start
  15. P2 0:33Goal by Guentzel (Cernak, Hagel)+15 pts WP

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Ristolainen, Dvorak, Konecny, Zegras · TBL Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous

  16. P2 3:05Shot by Abols, saved by Johansson
  17. P2 3:06Shot by Abols, saved by Johansson
  18. P2 3:36Shot by Cernak, saved by Vladar5v6
  19. P2 4:06Abols: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PHI Ristolainen, Konecny, Abols, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Raddysh, Hagel, D'Astous, James

  20. P2 4:10Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vladar4v5
  21. P2 4:27Shot by Point, saved by Vladar4v5
  22. P2 4:29Goal by Point (Bjorkstrand, Guentzel)4v5+9 pts WP

    On ice: PHI Sanheim, Dvorak, Cates, York · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh

  23. P2 4:29Bjorkstrand: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Sanheim, Dvorak, Cates, York · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh

  24. P2 4:29Sanheim: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Sanheim, Dvorak, Cates, York · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh

  25. P2 4:53Shot by Hagel, saved by Vladar4v4
  26. P2 5:23Shot by Tippett, saved by Johansson4v4
  27. P2 5:31Shot by Raddysh, saved by Vladar4v4
  28. P2 5:40Goal by Dvorak, unassisted4v4+9 pts WP

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Dvorak, Juulsen, Tippett · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Raddysh, D'Astous

  29. P2 6:21Shot by Dvorak, saved by Johansson4v4
  30. P2 6:48Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Johansson6v5
  31. P2 7:22Shot by Grundstrom, saved by Johansson6v5
  32. P2 7:39Cernak: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: PHI Ristolainen, Konecny, Grundstrom, Zegras, Andrae, Michkov · TBL Bjorkstrand, Cernak, D'Astous, Goncalves, James

  33. P2 8:23Shot by Crozier, saved by Vladar5v4
  34. P2 11:43Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Johansson
  35. P2 13:01Hagel: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Ristolainen, Sanheim, Tippett, Cates, Michkov · TBL Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, Crozier, Carlile

  36. P2 15:02Shot by Michkov, saved by Johansson
  37. P2 15:03Shot by Sanheim, saved by Johansson
  38. P2 16:18D'Astous: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Sanheim, Dvorak, Konecny, Zegras · TBL Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous

  39. P2 16:18Konecny: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Sanheim, Dvorak, Konecny, Zegras · TBL Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous

  40. P2 17:22Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vladar4v4
  41. P2 17:49Shot by Carlile, saved by Vladar4v4
  42. P2 18:12Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vladar4v4
  43. P2 18:18Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vladar
  44. P2 18:50Seeler: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Couturier, Juulsen, Grebenkin, Michkov · TBL Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, D'Astous, Goncalves, James

  45. P2 19:21Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vladar4v5
  46. P2 19:29Goal by Hagel (Raddysh, Kucherov)4v5+6 pts WP

    On ice: PHI Couturier, Sanheim, Dvorak, York · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Hagel

  47. P2 19:59Grebenkin: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Juulsen, Cates, Andrae, Grebenkin, Barkey · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser

  48. P2 19:59Gourde: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Juulsen, Cates, Andrae, Grebenkin, Barkey · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser

  49. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 1:43Shot by D'Astous, saved by Vladar4v4
  52. P3 2:15Shot by Tippett, saved by Johansson
  53. P3 3:46Abols: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  54. P3 3:46Paul: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  55. P3 3:46Abols: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  56. P3 3:46Crozier: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  57. P3 3:46Grebenkin: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  58. P3 3:46Grebenkin: Game misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  59. P3 3:46Crozier: Game misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Abols, Grundstrom, Andrae, Grebenkin · TBL Bjorkstrand, Paul, Crozier, Carlile, James

  60. P3 4:32Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Vladar4v5
  61. P3 5:33Shot by Cirelli, saved by Vladar4v5
  62. P3 6:08Shot by Zegras, saved by Johansson
  63. P3 7:38Shot by Michkov, saved by Johansson
  64. P3 8:40Hathaway: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PHI Couturier, Hathaway, Juulsen, Grundstrom, Andrae · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser

  65. P3 10:21Shot by Raddysh, saved by Vladar4v5
  66. P3 10:34Shot by Hagel, saved by Vladar4v5
  67. P3 10:36Guentzel: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Ristolainen, Dvorak, Konecny · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel, D'Astous

  68. P3 10:36Konecny: Cross checking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Ristolainen, Dvorak, Konecny · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel, D'Astous

  69. P3 10:36Konecny: Abuse of officials (10 min)4v5

    On ice: PHI Seeler, Ristolainen, Dvorak, Konecny · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel, D'Astous

  70. P3 12:52Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Johansson
  71. P3 15:06Shot by Cates, saved by Johansson
  72. P3 16:39Goal by Kucherov (Raddysh, Cirelli)6v50 pts WP

    On ice: PHI Ristolainen, Dvorak, Tippett, Zegras, York, Michkov · TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser

  73. P3 17:25Shot by Seeler, saved by Johansson
  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. P3 0:00Final