Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 432 |
| COL | 213 | 07 | 112 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15TOREaston CowanUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–0
- P1 16:12COLCale MakarAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:53COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 2:12TORBobby McMannUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:24TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 12:55COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 3:59TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:29COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:48TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:18COLIvan Ivan: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:31TORBobby McMann: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:08TORScott Laughton: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:08COLMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P3 17:18TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – McMann – Cowan3:44
xG 1.07–0.25 (81%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann2:32
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Laughton – Lorentz – McMann3:40
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli9:52
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo13:21
xG 1.53–0.87 (64%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Stecher – Benoit12:15
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe13:40
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Kelly – Drury8:27
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 23–7goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:27
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bardakov – Ivan – Brindley3:15
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton9:45
xG 0.71–1.36 (34%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Malinski11:40
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Girard – Solovyov4:36
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Manson – Girard4:50
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).