Tue, Jan 13, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 09 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 231 |
| PIT | 08 | 09 | 16 | 04 | 1 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 14:13TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 17:44PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 2. TBL Gage Goncalves scored
- 3. TBL Jake Guentzel stopped
- 4. PIT Egor Chinakhov scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:54TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:17TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:49TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:40PITConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P2 12:16PITSidney Crosby: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:10TBLAnthony Cirelli: Instigator2 min
- P3 3:10PITConnor Clifton: Boarding5 min
- P3 3:10PITConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:10TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:10TBLAnthony Cirelli: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 3:10TBLErik Cernak: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Goncalves3:27
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel4:12
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:00
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Paul9:22
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser14:25
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Crozier – Carlile8:57
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – D'Astous10:29
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Novak – Chinakhov9:48
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:34
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel5:02
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:02
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – St. Ivany10:15
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Kulak13:55
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Kulak – St. Ivany3:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).