Wed, Jan 14, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 18 | 16 | 222 |
| BUF | 26 | 26 | 13 | 515 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Josh Doan, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:13BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Noah Ostlund, Josh Doan · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 4:22BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Zach Benson · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 10:28PHIOwen TippettAssists: Noah Cates · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 13:51BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Josh Norris, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 7:37PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 19:20BUFRyan McLeodENAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:52BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:16PHICam York: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:05PHITrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:44PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14BUFZach Benson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00PHIGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:35PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:18BUFBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47BUFZach Metsa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:22PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:45BUFBowen Byram: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Cates – Grebenkin7:26
xG 0.60–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras11:40
xG 0.78–0.49 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols4:00
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Grundstrom – Michkov5:20
xG 0.00–0.65 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York9:40
xG 0.49–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Seeler – Juulsen9:26
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Andrae – Drysdale14:28
xG 0.77–0.93 (45%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn9:34
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund6:20
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak6:38
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson11:50
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Byram2:15
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0
- Dahlin – Power2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Byram – Power13:06
xG 0.78–0.91 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).