Wed, Jan 14, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 8, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 414 | 26 | 210 | 830 |
| NYR | 06 | 16 | 310 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 4:53OTTNick JensenAssists: Ridly Greig, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 15:01OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Ridly Greig, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 19:54OTTDylan CozensAssists: Ridly Greig, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 5:57OTTJake SandersonGWGAssists: Artem Zub, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.08 xG5–0
- P2 12:23OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Nick Cousins, David Perron · Slap, 0.01 xG6–0
- P2 18:55NYRGabe PerreaultAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.14 xG6–1
- P3 5:26NYRGabe PerreaultAssists: Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.18 xG6–2
- P3 8:20OTTDavid PerronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–2
- P3 10:44NYRNoah LabaPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Scott Morrow · Tip-in, 0.09 xG7–3
- P3 15:58NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–4
- P3 19:11OTTTim StützleENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.78 xG8–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:33NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:55OTTDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:58NYRNoah Laba: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Eller – Cousins9:28
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 13–3goals 3–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig9:04
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Stützle9:41
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto10:16
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven14:31
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot16:36
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 3–1
- Chabot – Spence2:28
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Perreault11:38
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Cuylle – Othmann – Laba7:52
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Raddysh8:14
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:51
xG 0.20–0.71 (22%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Robertson13:50
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Soucy – Morrow12:32
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Robertson – Morrow2:30
xG 0.07–0.25 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).