Thu, Jan 15, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 315 | 17 | 16 | 00 | 528 |
| VGK | 110 | 19 | 313 | 11 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:03TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Matias Maccelli, Brandon Carlo · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 8:12VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 9:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake McCabe, Troy Stecher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 5:51VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Braeden Bowman, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 12:46TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Matthew Knies · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 2:10VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 8:58TORScott LaughtonAssists: Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 10:14VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–4
- P3 19:53VGKTomas HertlAssists: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–5
- OT 2:44VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:36TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:48TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:36VGKTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03TOREaston Cowan: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Marner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Maccelli – Knies9:19
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Cowan6:22
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli2:03
xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Roy – Robertson – Knies2:22
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Myers10:45
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:00
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Carlo4:38
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Bowman8:03
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 16–3goals 1–2
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:03
xG 0.54–0.63 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Laczynski – Reinhardt – Holtz4:42
xG 0.00–0.25 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev10:38
xG 0.19–0.50 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Korczak6:39
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud12:35
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud2:13
xG 0.01–0.02 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).