Sat, Jan 17, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 218 | 010 | 11 | 536 |
| BUF | 16 | 39 | 09 | 00 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ben Jones · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 10:05BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:52MINRyan HartmanAssists: Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 1:08MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:07BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 11:34BUFJack QuinnAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 16:07BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 17:04MINQuinn HughesAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 1:46MINMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Filip Gustavsson · Snap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:10BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:05BUFMichael Kesselring: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:05MINMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:11MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:11BUFMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:25MINQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26MINDanila Yurov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:47BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:08BUFMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19MINDavid Jiricek: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01MINDanila Yurov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:46BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov14:26
xG 1.35–0.19 (88%)attempts 27–6goals 2–1
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov9:54
xG 0.28–0.29 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Haight5:57
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Sturm5:25
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber19:09
xG 1.48–0.82 (64%)attempts 25–14goals 3–2
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:50
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Hunt – Jiricek7:07
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn10:20
xG 1.06–0.88 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Krebs – Doan – Ostlund7:51
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson13:01
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Kozak5:56
xG 0.06–1.06 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Metsa3:24
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Byram4:06
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Byram2:16
xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).