Sat, Jan 17, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 110 | 217 | 13 | 437 |
| WPG | 010 | 27 | 113 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:23WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Logan Stanley, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:59WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 9:22TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 2:28WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 5:58TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Nick Robertson, Easton Cowan · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 15:33TORBobby McMannAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:08TORMax DomiGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:22TORBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:53TORNick Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:55WPGJonathan Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 14:52WPGAlex Iafallo: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:47TORMatthew Knies: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Robertson – Cowan7:53
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:25
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann11:34
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies10:27
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Carlo7:32
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:08
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 2–0
- McCabe – Stecher14:28
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov8:35
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo13:05
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke4:56
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Toews – Vilardi – Perfetti11:49
xG 0.00–0.65 (0%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:56
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Schenn – Stanley11:04
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Morrissey – Salomonsson2:23
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).