Sun, Jan 18, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 215 | 16 | 426 |
| DAL | 19 | 09 | 02 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00DALOskar BäckAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 8:04TBLDominic JamesAssists: Jake Guentzel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:04TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 18:50TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Dominic James, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 17:59TBLPontus HolmbergENAssists: Yanni Gourde, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.48 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:24TBLErik Cernak: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:04TBLDeclan Carlile: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:04DALJustin Hryckowian: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:16DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:20TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 7:26DALColin Blackwell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bourque won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Goncalves – James8:22
xG 1.16–0.03 (97%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:29
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Finley9:44
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:41
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – D'Astous14:56
xG 0.94–0.14 (87%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Crozier – Carlile11:40
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- D'Astous – Crozier3:55
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Hryckowian7:22
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Duchene – Hintz – Robertson9:51
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston8:24
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Benn – Blackwell – Faksa7:29
xG 0.07–0.58 (10%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley9:38
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin6:02
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:43
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).