Sun, Jan 18, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 110 | 03 | 00 | 322 |
| DET | 19 | 215 | 09 | 11 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:05OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 7:16DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 6:06DETLucas RaymondAssists: Marco Kasper, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:53DETJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat · Between legs, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 19:05OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:36DETAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:47DETAndrew Copp: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:22OTTNick Cousins: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:00OTTDrake Batherson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:00DETElmer Soderblom: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:00OTTThomas Chabot: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:00DETMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:56DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:42OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min
- P2 16:17OTTDavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:00DETElmer Soderblom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig11:06
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Stützle9:50
xG 0.81–0.36 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:05
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Eller – Cousins7:12
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:16
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot14:32
xG 1.03–0.89 (54%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven12:06
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAppleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:01
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Finnie5:43
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper6:06
xG 0.07–0.38 (16%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat13:50
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Johansson5:04
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson15:55
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson8:08
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).