Fri, Jan 23, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 210 | 27 | 214 | 631 |
| TOR | 05 | 311 | 05 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:31VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Jonas Rondbjerg, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 0:13TORJohn TavaresAssists: Matthew Knies, Matias Maccelli · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 3:32VGKPavel DorofeyevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 5:16VGKBraeden BowmanGWGAssists: Tanner Laczynski, Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 10:04TORScott LaughtonAssists: Matthew Knies · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 18:19TORBobby McMannAssists: Max Domi, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 15:11VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:01VGKMark StoneENAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.33 xG6–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 7:01TORScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:37VGKTomas Hertl: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kolesar – Rondbjerg11:40
xG 0.64–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Laczynski – Holtz – Bowman7:57
xG 0.56–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:06
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev13:01
xG 0.38–0.77 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak13:16
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:18
xG 0.78–0.74 (51%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
- Theodore – Hanifin2:31
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Maccelli – Knies11:48
xG 0.72–0.36 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Domi – Matthews – McMann14:34
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 24–8goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:06
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Roy – Robertson – Cowan9:30
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit3:52
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo11:05
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe13:15
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).