Sat, Jan 24, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 38 | 18 | 03 | 419 |
| OTT | 014 | 17 | 016 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53CARWilliam CarrierAssists: Mark Jankowski, Jalen Chatfield · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 5:36CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Alexander Nikishin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 18:43CARTaylor HallAssists: Jackson Blake, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 9:29CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P2 12:11OTTTim StützleAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:17OTTJake Sanderson: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:34CARAlexander Nikishin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:07CARSean Walker: Kneeing2 min
- P2 8:39OTTJake Sanderson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:49OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:52CARTaylor Hall: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 13:52CARTaylor Hall: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:35OTTNick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:21CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Jankowski – Carrier – Kotkaniemi6:35
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers9:07
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake6:13
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:42
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield15:22
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
- Walker – Miller13:53
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom8:19
xG 0.10–0.54 (16%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle8:30
xG 0.49–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto2:41
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Halliday2:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Amadio2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub9:42
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Spence – Sanderson3:05
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven2:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).