Sun, Jan 25, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 217 | 114 | 16 | 437 |
| TOR | 06 | 013 | 114 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19COLBrock NelsonAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:31COLBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 18:53COLJack DruryAssists: Parker Kelly, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 17:41COLBrock NelsonENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–0
- P3 18:58TORMax DomiPPAssists: Bobby McMann, Easton Cowan · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:34COLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:36TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:43TORBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P3 8:03COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:25COLZakhar Bardakov: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Olofsson – Necas13:19
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Bardakov5:02
xG 0.23–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin9:46
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Drury – Makar – Brindley8:18
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Malinski10:55
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson8:44
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Makar2:24
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Robertson – Maccelli4:43
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies2:31
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Laughton – McMann4:42
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Laughton – Roy – Lorentz2:29
xG 0.07–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Stecher9:08
xG 0.91–0.13 (88%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit9:30
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Stecher – Benoit4:27
xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).