Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 310 | 116 | 35 | 731 |
| TOR | 26 | 17 | 110 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44TORMatthew KniesAssists: John Tavares, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:29BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Ryan McLeod, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 10:49TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 13:16BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 18:05BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 11:17TORBobby McMannAssists: Auston Matthews, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 18:17BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Peyton Krebs · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 0:16BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 11:33BUFJack QuinnAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
- P3 14:59TORMax DomiAssists: Auston Matthews, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–4
- P3 19:16BUFRasmus DahlinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG7–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:27TORSteven Lorentz: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:53TORBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Ostlund – Helenius11:22
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn11:54
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 2–2
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson13:27
xG 0.37–0.57 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak8:58
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Kesselring3:50
xG 0.52–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Power4:13
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Kesselring5:09
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – McMann10:58
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 2–2
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies11:57
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz9:51
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Cowan7:48
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – McCabe10:56
xG 0.63–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Rielly – Carlo10:02
xG 0.58–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- McCabe – Stecher4:08
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).