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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Buffalo Sabres 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Away

Buffalo Sabres

7

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:33Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll
  3. P1 7:42Shot by Maccelli, saved by Luukkonen
  4. P1 7:44Goal by Knies (Tavares, Maccelli)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Stecher, Maccelli, Knies · BUF Zucker, McLeod, Byram, Quinn, Power

  5. P1 8:22Shot by Helenius, saved by Woll
  6. P1 8:50Shot by McMann, saved by Luukkonen
  7. P1 9:29Goal by Dahlin (McLeod, Samuelsson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Carlo, Maccelli, Knies · BUF Zucker, McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Quinn

  8. P1 10:47Shot by Domi, saved by Luukkonen
  9. P1 10:49Goal by Matthews (Domi, Ekman-Larsson)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Matthews, McMann · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Benson

  10. P1 11:10Shot by Quinn, saved by Woll
  11. P1 12:08Shot by Ostlund, saved by Woll
  12. P1 12:27Lorentz: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Laughton, Lorentz, Stecher, Benoit · BUF Samuelsson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund, Helenius

  13. P1 13:16Goal by Doan (Dahlin)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Roy, Matthews, Stecher · BUF Zucker, Thompson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund

  14. P1 15:09Shot by Thompson, saved by Woll
  15. P1 15:42Shot by Metsa, saved by Woll
  16. P1 16:14Shot by Lorentz, saved by Ellis
  17. P1 16:37Shot by Power, saved by Woll
  18. P1 18:05Goal by Thompson, unassisted+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Matthews, McMann · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Kesselring, Power, Benson

  19. P1 0:00Period end
  20. P2 0:00Period start
  21. P2 1:16Shot by Zucker, saved by Woll
  22. P2 2:19Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  23. P2 2:55Shot by Helenius, saved by Woll
  24. P2 4:21Shot by Krebs, saved by Woll
  25. P2 4:36Shot by Zucker, saved by Woll
  26. P2 5:26Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  27. P2 6:02Shot by Rielly, saved by Ellis
  28. P2 6:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Ellis
  29. P2 9:16Shot by Power, saved by Woll
  30. P2 11:17Goal by McMann (Matthews, Domi)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, McMann · BUF Zucker, McLeod, Dahlin, Quinn, Power

  31. P2 12:35Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll
  32. P2 12:47Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  33. P2 13:37Shot by Kesselring, saved by Woll
  34. P2 13:49Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll
  35. P2 14:36Shot by McCabe, saved by Ellis
  36. P2 14:38Shot by Matthews, saved by Ellis
  37. P2 15:45Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Ellis
  38. P2 16:59Shot by Kesselring, saved by Woll
  39. P2 17:09Shot by Tuch, saved by Woll
  40. P2 18:17Goal by Dahlin (Samuelsson, Krebs)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Laughton, Benoit, Robertson, McMann · BUF Malenstyn, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Kozak

  41. P2 18:53Shot by Stecher, saved by Ellis
  42. P2 19:12Shot by Zucker, saved by Woll
  43. P2 19:27Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  44. P2 0:00Period end
  45. P3 0:00Period start
  46. P3 0:16Goal by Tuch (Thompson, Samuelsson)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Matthews, Stecher, McMann · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Benson

  47. P3 1:34Shot by Maccelli, saved by Ellis
  48. P3 4:42Shot by McMann, saved by Ellis
  49. P3 5:48Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Ellis
  50. P3 5:53Shot by Cowan, saved by Ellis
  51. P3 6:46Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Ellis
  52. P3 6:53Carlo: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Laughton, Carlo, Lorentz · BUF Tuch, Dahlin, Kesselring, Power, Benson

  53. P3 8:30Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll4v5
  54. P3 9:20Shot by Power, saved by Woll
  55. P3 9:29Shot by McMann, saved by Ellis
  56. P3 11:33Goal by Quinn (Dahlin)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Roy, Robertson, Cowan · BUF Zucker, McLeod, Dahlin, Byram, Quinn

  57. P3 12:38Shot by Maccelli, saved by Ellis
  58. P3 14:59Goal by Domi (Matthews, McMann)+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, Cowan · BUF Thompson, Dahlin, Power, Benson, Helenius

  59. P3 16:13Shot by Knies, saved by Ellis
  60. P3 18:21Shot by Domi, saved by Ellis6v5
  61. P3 19:16Goal by Dahlin, unassisted6v50 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Roy, Matthews, Maccelli, Knies · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Power, Benson

  62. P3 0:00Period end
  63. P3 0:00Final