Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
32%
8%
9%
51%
TOR winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Tuch–Thompson–Benson | Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | Doan–Ostlund–Helenius | Malenstyn–Krebs–Kozak | Byram–Power | Samuelsson–Dahlin | Samuelsson–Kesselring | Dahlin–Power | Samuelsson–Byram | Kesselring–Power | Dahlin–Kesselring | Dahlin–Metsa | Byram–Metsa | Dahlin–Byram | Samuelsson–Power | Kesselring–Byram | Power–Metsa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavares–Maccelli–Knies | 5:230.36–0.12 | 3:230.16–0.07 | 0:320.16–0.00 | 1:500.42–0.00 | 2:320.02–0.08 | 1:170.00–0.06 | 1:350.00–0.00 | 1:090.07–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.28 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.06 | ||||||
| Domi–Matthews–McMann | 6:020.30–0.20 | 1:500.08–0.16 | 0:560.05–0.00 | 2:070.11–0.16 | 2:430.21–0.05 | 1:070.07–0.00 | 0:370.05–0.00 | 1:070.04–0.10 | 1:090.00–0.02 | 0:520.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Jarnkrok–Laughton–Lorentz | 3:080.20–0.05 | 1:470.04–0.07 | 1:240.07–0.09 | 2:410.06–0.02 | 2:040.07–0.11 | 1:160.00–0.00 | 0:450.01–0.00 | 1:110.04–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.07 | 1:050.00–0.05 | 0:460.05–0.00 | ||||||
| Roy–Robertson–Cowan | 0:420.06–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.08 | 3:050.00–0.30 | 2:000.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 1:260.06–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 1:390.00–0.10 | 0:520.00–0.20 | 0:360.00–0.08 | ||||||
| Tavares–Domi–Maccelli | 1:000.00–0.11 | 0:560.00–0.11 | |||||||||||||||
| Matthews–Robertson–McMann | 0:530.26–0.00 | 0:530.26–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Tavares–Matthews–Knies | 0:360.01–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.22 | 0:360.01–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Tavares–Robertson–Cowan | 0:350.00–0.05 | 1:140.00–0.05 | |||||||||||||||
| Matthews–McMann–Knies | 0:340.00–0.08 | 0:490.00–0.08 | |||||||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–McCabe | 5:360.37–0.13 | 1:330.00–0.00 | 1:460.26–0.00 | 1:380.06–0.00 | 2:030.21–0.00 | 1:300.00–0.00 | 1:300.06–0.00 | 1:030.04–0.10 | 0:410.00–0.03 | 0:310.00–0.01 | 0:370.26–0.00 | ||||||
| Stecher–Benoit | 0:420.00–0.00 | 3:170.05–0.28 | 3:370.00–0.52 | 2:010.06–0.00 | 0:540.01–0.16 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:260.01–0.17 | 0:570.04–0.00 | 1:380.00–0.07 | 2:260.00–0.49 | 0:500.00–0.20 | 0:540.05–0.00 | |||||
| Rielly–Carlo | 0:490.16–0.00 | 3:300.19–0.14 | 1:460.07–0.14 | 2:270.00–0.00 | 2:150.11–0.15 | 2:000.00–0.06 | 1:100.24–0.00 | 1:230.07–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.06 | 0:400.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | 1:460.00–0.08 | 0:430.00–0.01 | 1:150.05–0.00 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.01 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.08 | ||||||||||
| McCabe–Stecher | 2:300.00–0.08 | 0:360.24–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.01 | 0:580.24–0.01 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:590.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.03 | ||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Carlo | 0:320.04–0.03 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.02 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.02 | ||||||||||||
| McCabe–Carlo | 1:030.00–0.05 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:070.00–0.05 | ||||||||||||||
| Rielly–Benoit | 0:410.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rielly–Stecher | 0:360.01–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.22 | 0:440.03–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Carlo–Benoit | 0:380.00–0.05 | ||||||||||||||||
| McCabe–Benoit | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:340.14–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Stecher | 0:350.00–0.05 | 0:380.00–0.05 | |||||||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Benoit | 0:310.00–0.07 | 0:390.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 28 | 26:24 | 0:57 | 2:54 | 4 | 5 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 28 | 23:02 | 0:49 | 1:32 | 1 | 2 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 24 | 22:48 | 0:57 | 1:49 | 1 | 2 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 32 | 21:54 | 0:41 | 1:50 | 2 | 4 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 31 | 21:43 | 0:42 | 1:11 | 5 | 0 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 27 | 21:41 | 0:48 | 1:22 | 2 | 4 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 29 | 20:52 | 0:43 | 1:33 | 9 | 1 |
 John TavaresTOR | 22 | 19:58 | 0:54 | 1:54 | 3 | 2 |
 Troy StecherTOR | 27 | 19:47 | 0:44 | 1:54 | 2 | 7 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 23 | 19:36 | 0:51 | 2:41 | 5 | 4 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 23 | 18:57 | 0:49 | 1:48 | 5 | 2 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 19 | 18:33 | 0:59 | 2:03 | 2 | 1 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 21 | 17:44 | 0:51 | 2:01 | 3 | 2 |
 Bobby McMannTOR | 21 | 17:40 | 0:50 | 1:56 | 5 | 3 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 18 | 17:19 | 0:58 | 2:11 | 2 | 1 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 28 | 17:15 | 0:37 | 1:25 | 4 | 3 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 21 | 17:02 | 0:49 | 1:25 | 3 | 1 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 23 | 16:40 | 0:43 | 1:53 | 0 | 3 |
 Konsta HeleniusBUF | 17 | 16:12 | 0:57 | 1:37 | 1 | 1 |
 Max DomiTOR | 21 | 15:55 | 0:45 | 1:44 | 4 | 2 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 20 | 15:55 | 0:48 | 2:03 | 8 | 2 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 21 | 15:44 | 0:45 | 1:35 | 3 | 1 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 21 | 15:36 | 0:45 | 1:52 | 3 | 1 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 17 | 15:08 | 0:53 | 1:35 | 0 | 1 |
 Scott LaughtonTOR | 20 | 15:05 | 0:45 | 2:00 | 1 | 1 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 19 | 14:21 | 0:45 | 1:19 | 6 | 2 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 19 | 13:36 | 0:43 | 1:06 | 5 | 2 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 14 | 13:17 | 0:57 | 1:39 | 1 | 1 |
 Steven LorentzTOR | 16 | 13:04 | 0:49 | 2:16 | 1 | 2 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 18 | 11:59 | 0:40 | 1:25 | 1 | 2 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 18 | 11:54 | 0:40 | 1:07 | 1 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 19 | 11:47 | 0:37 | 1:06 | 1 | 3 |
 Tyson KozakBUF | 18 | 11:20 | 0:38 | 1:04 | 1 | 4 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 13 | 11:14 | 0:52 | 1:18 | 0 | 0 |
 Nicolas RoyTOR | 11 | 9:44 | 0:53 | 1:16 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 9 | 8:17 | 0:55 | 1:08 | 3 | 0 |