Wed, Jan 28, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 14 | 110 | 218 |
| OTT | 09 | 26 | 38 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:21OTTNick CousinsAssists: Artem Zub, Tim Stützle · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 14:05COLParker KellyAssists: Brock Nelson, Keaton Middleton · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:22OTTRidly GreigAssists: Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 2:06OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 3:30COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Jack Drury · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 17:44OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–4
- P3 18:53OTTTim StützleENAssists: Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.81 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:20COLSam Malinski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:13COLTaylor Makar: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:06COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Olofsson – Necas10:12
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Bardakov3:39
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta2:10
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 1–2
- Drury – Makar – Brindley4:52
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar3:30
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson11:01
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Burns – Girard3:56
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig9:09
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Greig2:39
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto13:36
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Bourgault4:53
xG 0.27–0.34 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub18:12
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven13:29
xG 0.61–0.53 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Jensen – Chabot15:45
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).