Wed, Jan 28, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 87% of the time.
81%
8%
OTT winsCOL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
OTT forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against COL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| MacKinnon–Olofsson–Necas | Nelson–Lehkonen–Nichushkin | Nelson–MacKinnon–Necas | Drury–Makar–Brindley | Kelly–Kiviranta–Bardakov | Kelly–Drury–Kiviranta | Drury–Kiviranta–Brindley | Makar–Malinski | Burns–Manson | Middleton–Girard | Burns–Girard | Girard–Makar | Manson–Girard | Manson–Middleton | Manson–Makar | Middleton–Malinski | Burns–Malinski | Manson–Malinski | Burns–Middleton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cousins–Amadio–Pinto | 8:140.16–0.25 | 4:020.09–0.01 | 7:540.25–0.22 | 1:540.00–0.03 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.01 | 0:490.01–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Giroux–Batherson–Stützle | 1:490.11–0.00 | 3:060.02–0.00 | 0:310.07–0.05 | 2:180.16–0.01 | 2:220.08–0.17 | 1:140.00–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.02 | 1:240.11–0.32 | 1:040.07–0.05 | 0:340.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Tkachuk–Cozens–Greig | 5:370.05–0.00 | 1:090.32–0.05 | 1:180.00–0.03 | 2:340.05–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 0:570.02–0.05 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.03 | 0:360.32–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Eller–Zetterlund–Bourgault | 1:580.07–0.17 | 1:200.00–0.17 | 1:070.21–0.00 | 1:220.00–0.07 | 0:380.00–0.17 | 1:000.07–0.10 | 1:070.21–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Eller–Zetterlund–Greig | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.05 | 0:460.10–0.03 | 0:530.12–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.05 | ||||||||||||||
| Amadio–Pinto–Greig | |||||||||||||||||||
| Sanderson–Zub | 8:460.16–0.21 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 5:280.09–0.01 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 9:100.25–0.17 | 3:070.07–0.03 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 1:320.00–0.01 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Jensen–Chabot | 0:360.00–0.04 | 7:290.15–0.00 | 0:550.32–0.11 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.15 | 2:440.15–0.04 | 3:090.05–0.00 | 1:260.00–0.10 | 1:360.00–0.05 | 1:500.11–0.32 | 1:520.00–0.08 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:370.32–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.09 | |||||
| Spence–Kleven | 3:310.02–0.00 | 2:300.07–0.23 | 1:260.12–0.07 | 1:070.21–0.00 | 3:170.02–0.11 | 4:200.18–0.37 | 2:250.19–0.00 | 1:100.21–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.05 | |||||||||
| Jensen–Sanderson | 0:320.00–0.02 |
Every shift, one row per player.
OTTCOLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Cale MakarCOL | 28 | 27:22 | 0:59 | 2:14 | 3 | 2 |
 Jake SandersonOTT | 27 | 24:43 | 0:55 | 2:08 | 2 | 3 |
 Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 26 | 23:36 | 0:54 | 2:13 | 5 | 0 |
 Martin NecasCOL | 25 | 22:37 | 0:54 | 1:32 | 5 | 0 |
 Brock NelsonCOL | 26 | 22:23 | 0:52 | 1:32 | 6 | 3 |
 Shane PintoOTT | 27 | 22:19 | 0:50 | 1:11 | 1 | 4 |
 Artem ZubOTT | 27 | 21:55 | 0:49 | 1:32 | 0 | 4 |
 Brent BurnsCOL | 28 | 21:45 | 0:47 | 1:24 | 1 | 6 |
 Thomas ChabotOTT | 23 | 21:24 | 0:56 | 1:59 | 1 | 1 |
 Josh MansonCOL | 25 | 20:55 | 0:50 | 1:29 | 2 | 5 |
 Sam MalinskiCOL | 25 | 20:52 | 0:50 | 1:27 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael AmadioOTT | 26 | 20:13 | 0:47 | 1:09 | 0 | 4 |
 Ridly GreigOTT | 29 | 18:45 | 0:39 | 1:14 | 3 | 4 |
 Tim StützleOTT | 22 | 18:28 | 0:50 | 3:07 | 2 | 1 |
 Claude GirouxOTT | 21 | 17:34 | 0:50 | 1:43 | 0 | 1 |
 Nick JensenOTT | 23 | 17:04 | 0:45 | 1:19 | 1 | 0 |
 Samuel GirardCOL | 22 | 17:04 | 0:47 | 1:24 | 2 | 4 |
 Artturi LehkonenCOL | 19 | 16:51 | 0:53 | 1:15 | 1 | 2 |
 Nick CousinsOTT | 25 | 16:44 | 0:40 | 1:05 | 0 | 2 |
 Jack DruryCOL | 21 | 16:30 | 0:47 | 1:24 | 2 | 5 |
 Drake BathersonOTT | 20 | 16:08 | 0:48 | 2:10 | 1 | 1 |
 Valeri NichushkinCOL | 21 | 15:59 | 0:46 | 1:32 | 2 | 2 |
 Victor OlofssonCOL | 19 | 15:22 | 0:49 | 2:11 | 0 | 0 |
 Brady TkachukOTT | 22 | 15:12 | 0:41 | 1:05 | 4 | 1 |
 Jordan SpenceOTT | 20 | 15:06 | 0:45 | 1:11 | 2 | 0 |
 Dylan CozensOTT | 22 | 14:44 | 0:40 | 1:03 | 5 | 2 |
 Parker KellyCOL | 20 | 14:04 | 0:42 | 1:08 | 1 | 5 |
 Tyler KlevenOTT | 20 | 13:59 | 0:42 | 1:12 | 2 | 0 |
 Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 15 | 12:16 | 0:49 | 1:10 | 4 | 0 |
 Joel KivirantaCOL | 18 | 11:41 | 0:39 | 1:07 | 1 | 3 |
 Keaton MiddletonCOL | 13 | 10:23 | 0:48 | 1:16 | 0 | 2 |
 Gavin BrindleyCOL | 10 | 8:43 | 0:52 | 1:07 | 1 | 0 |
 Lars EllerOTT | 12 | 8:14 | 0:41 | 1:07 | 3 | 0 |
 Taylor MakarCOL | 8 | 5:30 | 0:41 | 1:15 | 1 | 0 |
 Xavier BourgaultOTT | 8 | 5:12 | 0:39 | 1:07 | 2 | 0 |
 Zakhar BardakovCOL | 8 | 4:42 | 0:35 | 1:00 | 0 | 0 |