Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 013 | 17 | 231 |
| SEA | 19 | 27 | 26 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 15:02TORNick RobertsonUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:23SEAShane WrightAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:54SEABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 6:04TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 8:32SEAShane WrightAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 17:23SEAJared McCannENAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:35SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:57TORTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 17:11SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:57SEAShane Wright: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:37TORBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – McMann13:33
xG 0.80–0.08 (91%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Roy – Robertson10:48
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Laughton – Lorentz – Cowan6:17
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies8:04
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – McCabe14:49
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Rielly – Carlo11:01
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly5:04
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Winterton – Melanson7:19
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Wright9:05
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen7:06
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Kakko – Winterton – Wright2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour16:34
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Lindgren – Evans14:31
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn13:31
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).