Mon, Feb 2, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 09 | 09 | 130 |
| WSH | 06 | 28 | 211 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:38NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 5:29WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:00WSHAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Matt Roy, Alex Ovechkin · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 8:46WSHNic DowdAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Ethen Frank · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 17:35WSHJohn CarlsonENAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:26WSHNic Dowd: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:51NYIMatthew Schaefer: Holding2 min
- P1 19:41WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:47NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:47NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:47WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:37NYICarson Soucy: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:51NYIAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb8:39
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Drouin – Holmstrom – Heineman11:06
xG 0.38–0.32 (55%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair7:29
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Horvat – Barzal10:46
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer12:19
xG 1.14–0.71 (62%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Soucy9:03
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo13:40
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif8:10
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Milano – Duhaime – Lapierre3:56
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Wilson – Protas2:12
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Frank – Leonard4:51
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin10:43
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun14:16
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:05
xG 0.16–0.57 (21%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).