Tue, Feb 3, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 04 | 28 | 05 | 326 |
| TBL | 113 | 010 | 211 | 11 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:53BUFMattias SamuelssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 4:08BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 8:53TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 14:53BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:34TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 4:45TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:10BUFNoah Ostlund: Holding2 min
- P1 10:35TBLGage Goncalves: Holding2 min
- P1 13:55TBLJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:33BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:55TBLCurtis Douglas: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Malenstyn – Rosen – Kozak5:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs11:46
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Ostlund – Helenius8:04
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:28
xG 0.11–0.93 (10%)attempts 4–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power3:40
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Byram2:57
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:45
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Hagel13:08
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–2
- Sabourin – Douglas – Finley5:01
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Goncalves – James9:35
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:57
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak11:48
xG 0.64–0.14 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser18:55
xG 0.89–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Hedman – Carlile12:11
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).