Thu, Feb 5, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 17 | 215 | 532 |
| BUF | 18 | 09 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:18PITAvery HayesAssists: Ilya Solovyov, Rutger McGroarty · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:47PITAvery HayesAssists: Anthony Mantha, Parker Wotherspoon · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 7:44PITBen KindelGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 1:55BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 15:33PITTommy NovakAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 19:46PITBen KindelENAssists: Connor Dewar · Snap, 0.81 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:54PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:59PITRyan Shea: Holding2 min
- P2 10:03PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:54BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:14PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:13BUFMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:33BUFPeyton Krebs: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:33PITConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:33BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:31PITAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Hayes – McGroarty6:01
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov10:45
xG 0.96–0.52 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Brazeau – Dewar – Kindel6:58
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Mantha9:38
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Solovyov8:38
xG 0.76–0.32 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon12:36
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kulak – Shea12:33
xG 0.71–0.82 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Doan6:28
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs4:57
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak3:11
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rosen – Ostlund – Helenius3:53
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Kesselring4:13
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin14:22
xG 0.51–0.90 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Byram – Power17:27
xG 0.50–0.91 (35%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).