Thu, Feb 5, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
13%
77%
BUF winsPIT wins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 23:37 | 0.00 | 50.1% | +16.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:31 | 0.05 | 32.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:47 | 0.09 | 63.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 20:05 | 0.37 | 49.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:29 | 0.10 | 50.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0.00 | 51.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17:59 | 0.42 | 52.2% | +12.2 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:27 | 1.59 | 52.7% | +15.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:19 | 0.01 | 59.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0.20 | 39.4% | +16.4 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 15:41 | 0.66 | 38.5% | +0.2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:19 | 0.24 | 48.6% | +12.2 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13:08 | 0.38 | 58.9% | +12.2 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0.00 | 66.8% | +15.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:11 | 0.18 | 55.5% | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 10:09 | 0.57 | 73.9% | +31.4 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:01 | 0.08 | 97.6% | +15.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 7:07 | 0.11 | 99.7% | 0.0 |
| W | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 2.79 | +0.8 | 59:38 |
Buffalo Sabres
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 26:32 | 0.04 | 42.2% | +15.1 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 26:00 | 0.12 | 39.2% | +11.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 25:12 | 0.19 | 44.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −3 | 7 | 23:18 | 0.74 | 54.9% | +15.1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 22:42 | 0.00 | 47.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 20:53 | 0.26 | 66.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:01 | 0.12 | 52.6% | +11.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 4 | 19:24 | 0.53 | 39.2% | +15.1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 18:48 | 0.03 | 35.1% | +11.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −4 | 0 | 18:35 | 0.17 | 36.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0.01 | 36.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 11:10 | 0.20 | 45.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0.17 | 60.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:38 | 0.06 | 30.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:36 | 0.13 | 18.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 8:02 | 0.00 | 22.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 7:56 | 0.00 | 58.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 4:19 | 0.00 | 32.9% | 0.0 |
| L | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 2.95 | −1.0 | 56:51 |