Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 17 | 08 | 11 | 220 |
| OTT | 113 | 09 | 05 | 00 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:44OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:24DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- OT 1:50DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:42DETPatrick Kane: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:45DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:10OTTRidly Greig: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:40OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min
- P2 7:40OTTDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:40DETSimon Edvinsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:35OTTTyler Kleven: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:35DETJohn Gibson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:35OTTRidly Greig: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Compher – Appleton – Finnie7:27
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom5:22
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat12:59
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper14:07
xG 0.23–0.85 (21%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Johansson3:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka9:53
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker15:22
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Amadio – Pinto13:17
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig10:28
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:27
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Halliday4:50
xG 0.07–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven13:04
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot15:40
xG 0.42–0.36 (53%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub18:55
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).