Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 415 | 09 | 540 |
| TOR | 12 | 18 | 013 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:59OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:03OTTDylan CozensAssists: Thomas Chabot, Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 13:05OTTDrake BathersonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 13:56TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Scott Laughton, Matias Maccelli · Poke, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 15:15OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 16:06OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:50OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:03TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15TORNick Robertson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 3:34TORAnthony Stolarz: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:34OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:34OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:34TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:34TORScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:34OTTNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:34TORMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:09TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:09OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:27OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle9:55
xG 0.64–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:32
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:57
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Halliday6:22
xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot13:34
xG 1.15–0.08 (94%)attempts 21–6goals 3–0
- Sanderson – Zub14:54
xG 1.05–0.30 (77%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven14:19
xG 0.34–0.85 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Laughton – Joshua – Robertson5:45
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies6:23
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 2–14goals 0–2
- Roy – McMann – Cowan6:22
xG 0.04–0.42 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli9:39
xG 0.26–0.91 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo13:20
xG 0.82–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:43
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stecher12:24
xG 0.30–0.76 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).